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Frontier AI Is Fragmenting: Scarcity, Export Controls, and Sovereign Responses

Access to leading AI models and infrastructure is fracturing along geopolitical lines, driven by US export controls, compute scarcity at the hyperscaler tier, and accelerating sovereign AI strategies from Europe to Southeast Asia.

3 signals tracked

  1. Google rations Gemini, US restricts exports, Austria bids for Anthropic

  2. Photonics lab, domestic chips, and open-source strategy reveal parallel stack

  3. RISC-V, open-source LLMs, and gallium bans signal stack war is live