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China's Dual-Track Strategy Is Outpacing US Export Control Design

This theme tracks the sustained contest between US-led efforts to deny China access to frontier AI hardware and China's multi-pronged responses — domestic chip investment, alternative research pathways, and selective diplomatic access — that collectively determine the long-term effectiveness of technology controls as a geopolitical instrument.

5 signals tracked

  1. H200 carve-outs, agentic scaling, and domestic capital close the gap

  2. CXMT's HBM bid and Singapore smuggling probe reveal dual-track response

  3. Smuggling, lobbying, and robotics hiring expose export control limits

  4. Blackwell loophole, DeepSeek dominance, and MiniMax efficiency reveal control erosion

  5. Smuggling networks, Tau scaling, and $16B in Chinese AI investment converge