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Infrastructure Overextension: Energy Constraints, Demand Concentration, and Supply Chain Exposure

The AI infrastructure buildout is creating synchronised capital commitments across energy, compute, and supply chain tiers that are increasingly exposed to demand concentration risk from a small number of frontier model companies and to physical disruption from geopolitical events that investment models did not anticipate.

4 signals tracked

  1. OpenAI miss, Hormuz shock, and 25x power surge hit simultaneously

  2. OpenAI's missed targets and board spending concerns signal cycle inflection

  3. OpenAI at $852B, junk bonds, and Allbirds pivoting to GPUs

  4. Capital Intensity of AI Buildout Creates Systemic Financial Exposure