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Capital Moves Up the Certainty Curve into Physical AI Infrastructure

Investment is rotating from software-layer AI into the physical infrastructure stack — power generation, edge silicon, robotics hardware, and industrial deployment — where capital allocators perceive more durable margin pools as software-layer AI valuations face ROI scrutiny.

3 signals tracked

  1. Geothermal, edge M&A, and Goldman's physical economy thesis converge

  2. Inference valuations surge while Meta and SpaceX turn to debt markets

  3. Bain ROI shortfall data widens as memory stocks hit historic highs