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Public Policy & Governance

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Top Line

House Republicans released a draft AI bill authored by Rep. Obernolte that would preempt state-level AI laws, representing the GOP's last realistic legislative window before the 2026 midterms — but immediate bipartisan skepticism signals the bill faces steep odds of passage.

The Hegseth Pentagon has doubled down on its supply-chain security designation of Anthropic, clearing the path for a federal appeals court to define the scope of DoD's designation authority — a ruling with significant implications for how national security law applies to commercial AI firms.

EFF testified before the House Homeland Security Subcommittee that government AI adoption without constitutional safeguards poses civil liberties risks, marking a concrete escalation of civil society pressure on federal AI procurement and use standards.

California's AB 412, which would mandate disclosure of copyrighted training data, remains before the Senate Privacy Committee despite being technically unenforceable as written — illustrating a persistent gap between legislative intent and implementation feasibility in AI copyright governance.

The UK Labour government formally framed its AI workforce policy around protection of displaced workers, with Technology Secretary Liz Kendall signalling regulatory intent to shape adoption — though no concrete legislative mechanism has yet been announced.

Key Developments

Federal AI Preemption Bill: Republicans' Last Legislative Gambit Before Midterms

Rep. Obernolte (R-CA) and Rep. Trahan (D-MA) released a draft federal AI bill that would preempt state-level AI regulations, according to Politico. The preemption mechanism is the bill's central and most contested feature: it would override the growing patchwork of state laws — including California's active legislative agenda — in favour of a uniform federal framework. For industry, this is the primary attraction; for progressive Democrats and state attorneys general, it is the primary objection.

A follow-up Politico analysis describes the deal receiving a 'brutal reality check,' with Republicans skeptical of sweeping AI regulation and Democrats under pressure from state-rights constituencies to oppose any preemption. The bill's bipartisan co-sponsorship gives it a veneer of viability, but the internal party tensions on both sides make floor passage before the November 2026 midterms highly uncertain. If this window closes, federal AI legislation is unlikely to move until 2027 at the earliest, leaving state-level regimes — particularly California's — as the effective national standard by default.

Why it matters

Federal preemption of state AI law would be the single most consequential structural change to the US AI governance landscape, determining whether Silicon Valley faces 50 regulatory regimes or one, and the outcome of this bill effectively sets that architecture for the next several years.

What to watch

Whether Senate leadership signals willingness to take up companion legislation, and whether large AI developers publicly endorse or distance themselves from the preemption provision — their positioning will signal how politically viable this bill actually is.

Pentagon vs. Anthropic: Courts to Define Scope of DoD's AI Supply-Chain Designation Powers

Secretary Hegseth has reaffirmed the Pentagon's national security supply-chain risk designation of Anthropic, clearing procedural hurdles for a federal appeals court to adjudicate the boundaries of DoD's designation authority, per Politico. The core legal question is how far the Pentagon can extend supply-chain risk management frameworks — originally designed for hardware and telecommunications vendors — to cover AI model developers and their underlying training and deployment infrastructure.

The case's outcome will set binding precedent on whether the executive branch can use national security designation powers as a de facto regulatory tool for commercial AI firms, potentially bypassing the conventional notice-and-comment rulemaking process. This matters beyond Anthropic: it creates a legal template applicable to any AI company with foreign investment, foreign-sourced compute, or cloud dependencies that DoD deems a risk vector. Anthropic's publicly stated call for a global AI pause, announced simultaneously, adds political complexity — the company is simultaneously seeking to frame itself as a responsible safety actor while contesting the government's legal authority to restrict it.

Why it matters

A broad appellate ruling in DoD's favour would give the Pentagon — and potentially other national security agencies — an extrajudicial tool to constrain commercial AI companies outside normal regulatory channels, reshaping the enforcement landscape significantly.

What to watch

The appeals court's framing of the statutory authority question — whether it treats this as a narrow procurement matter or a broader administrative law question about executive designation powers over commercial technology firms.

California AB 412: Legislative Persistence Despite Structural Unenforceable

California's AB 412, requiring AI developers to identify and disclose all copyrighted works used in training data, is again advancing through the Senate Privacy Committee despite EFF's formal opposition testimony arguing the bill is technically unenforceable, per EFF. The core problem EFF identifies is that the required information — granular provenance records for training datasets — frequently does not exist and cannot be reconstructed retroactively, particularly for models trained on web-scraped data at scale.

The bill's persistence despite these objections is itself a significant governance signal. California legislators appear willing to pass aspirational compliance mandates and let enforcement practicalities be resolved through litigation or future rulemaking. This mirrors the early trajectory of GDPR, which included provisions that were practically impossible to implement at the time of passage, with compliance norms developed over years of enforcement decisions. The difference is that training data provenance is arguably harder to reconstruct than personal data processing records, creating a more fundamental implementation gap.

Why it matters

If AB 412 passes in its current form, it creates a compliance obligation no developer can fully meet, effectively handing California's Attorney General discretionary enforcement power over the entire generative AI industry operating in the state.

What to watch

Whether the Senate Privacy Committee adopts any EFF-proposed amendments to narrow the disclosure scope to prospective training data rather than retroactive dataset reconstruction, which would substantially change the bill's practical impact.

Congressional Hearing on Government AI: Civil Liberties Safeguards Move Into Formal Legislative Record

EFF Senior Policy Analyst Dr. Matthew Guariglia testified before the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection, arguing that federal agencies must not adopt AI systems without explicit constitutional safeguards, per EFF. The hearing's framing — focusing on frontier models, agentic AI, and AI coding tools in the context of critical infrastructure — reflects a shift in how Congress is approaching the government-use question, treating it as a security and resilience issue rather than solely a civil liberties one.

EFF's testimony entering the formal congressional record is procedurally significant: it creates a documented legislative history that can anchor future litigation or regulatory challenges to federal agency AI procurement decisions. The subcommittee's jurisdiction over critical infrastructure means any safeguard standards it develops would apply across DHS components with extensive domestic surveillance and enforcement roles — CBP, ICE, Secret Service — making the stakes of this hearing higher than its relatively low public profile suggests.

Why it matters

Congressional testimony establishing a civil liberties baseline for government AI adoption creates a legislative history record that courts and agency watchdogs can use to challenge AI deployments that lack those safeguards.

What to watch

Whether the subcommittee produces draft procurement guidance or legislative language incorporating EFF's recommended safeguards, or whether the hearing serves primarily as political record-building without actionable follow-through.

Signals & Trends

The Federal Preemption Question Is Now the Central Fault Line in US AI Governance

The Obernolte-Trahan draft crystallises what has been building for two years: the fundamental structural question in US AI regulation is not what rules to write, but who writes them. Every major industry stakeholder, every civil society group, and every state regulator now has to take a position on federal preemption, and those positions are not mapping cleanly onto party lines. Democrats face a genuine internal split between tech-sceptical progressives who want aggressive state-level experimentation and moderate members who prefer federal uniformity. This fracture is likely to be more decisive than Republican resistance, and policy professionals should track Democratic caucus positioning on preemption specifically — not AI regulation generally — as the operative variable.

National Security Law Is Becoming an Ad Hoc AI Regulatory Instrument

The Anthropic-DoD designation case, combined with ongoing CFIUS scrutiny of AI investment and the continued use of export controls on AI chips and model weights, reveals a pattern: the executive branch is using national security legal authorities to exert governance influence over commercial AI in the absence of dedicated AI legislation. This is not unique to the current administration — it accelerated under the previous one — but the Hegseth decision to contest the designation in federal court rather than resolve it administratively means the boundaries of this approach will now be defined by judges rather than legislators. The resulting case law will either constrain or significantly expand the executive's ability to regulate AI companies without going through Congress, making this litigation arguably more consequential for the long-term governance architecture than any pending bill.

Implementation Gaps Are Becoming a Feature, Not a Bug, of AI Legislation

California's AB 412 persisting despite documented unenforceable provisions is not an isolated drafting failure — it reflects a broader legislative strategy of passing aspirational standards and delegating enforcement discretion to attorneys general and regulators. This mirrors dynamics in EU AI Act implementation, where high-level obligations are being operationalised through technical standards bodies and enforcement guidance over a multi-year horizon. The practical consequence for regulated entities is that legal uncertainty is the stable state: compliance programmes must be designed around regulatory intent rather than precise legal text, and enforcement risk is concentrated in politically salient cases rather than systematic audits. Policy professionals advising clients on compliance strategy should weight enforcement probability and political salience at least as heavily as technical legal text.

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